30 Kasım 2012 Cuma

First Impression - Don't Sue Me

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Last week, I took my buyers to see houses in Superior.   The sign below was attached to the front door of one of the houses.

And Don't Run with Scissors

First impressions matter.   Greeting potential buyers with your fear of being sued is not exactly rolling out the welcome mat.  

Walking in the door of this house, I expected to see shards of broken glass on the floors, fire damage, stairs hung askew, or curtains of mold hanging from the walls.      Yet none of these things were present.    It was a just a typical house with a favorable layout, low end finishes but a good location.    There was nothing scary inside.

Is it possible that a potential buyer will get injured in your home and sue you for damages?   Of course it's possible, this is America after all.    Sellers should not be negligent, take some time and make their house safe for visitors.   In other words, correct the trip hazards and if necessary (rare), put up signs to help people avoid injury from obvious hazards.   As for THIS sign?  I'll leave it to the legal scholars in the audience to tell us whether it offers any real protection from liability.    I have my doubts.   

And if the sign offers no real protection, why put it up?   It only affects the buyers negatively.    

p.s. This is the only house I've seen - EVER - that had a injury disclaimer taped to the front door.    

---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

It's Bargain Time

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by Osman Parvez

It's bargain time, people.    

The biggest discounts in Boulder real estate usually happen from Thanksgiving to New Years.    Sellers are getting anxious and would just like to be done with the process.   Buyers typically have more selection and more negotiation leverage.  Everyone is distracted by the holidays.

Perhaps, this year will be different.  The market has remained very active in the fourth quarter and with record low inventory, bargains are a little less abundant.    Still, let's take a look at some (mostly) fresh listings.    Believe me, these sellers are very motivated to list at this time of year.  

Fresh Listings, Get 'Em Hot

4965 Qualla Drive (link).   This bi-level was built in the 1960's with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 1 car garage.    The asking price is reasonable at $429,000 but the proximity to Foothills may be an issue.    My usual rule of thumb is to be at least 3 houses from a busy street.   This one is 2 houses from Thunderbird and Foothills.    For bargain shoppers who aren't bothered by the potential traffic noise, it's worth considering.   For those worried about resale, you might want to take a pass.    Due Diligence Tip: Test your noise tolerance by standing in the backyard during rush hour.  

1959 Beacon Ct (link).    These super cute town homes are rarely available and in the perfect location for a stroll to Pearl Street.     A little small - only 1,012 SQFT and two bedrooms - they are perhaps best suited to young professionals, downsizing Boomers, or vacation home buyers.      This one is done up nicely.   The asking price is $499,900.   Due Diligence Tip:  The HOA fees are only $200 per year, but check for upcoming capital assessments and review the restrictions to ensure it fits your lifestyle.

Eye candy!
907 13th Street (link).    I love Craftsman style homes and this one is eye candy.   It was recently constructed with a good layout, ample bedrooms and baths, and plenty of space (5,200 finished SQFT) for a family.   Very rare for Boulder, it also has a 3 car heated garage.    It's less than 10 years old, so the house is nearly turn-key which is also rare in the Boulder real estate market.    The location is pretty good, but not spectacular.   Due Diligence Tip:  The seller is signaling deep motivation.  It's not actually new on the market.    The latest refreshed listing may give the appearance of being new to market (eye roll), but the truth is this house was originally listed in June at $1,550,000.  Since then, the asking price has been reduced $162,500 to $1,387,500.     And while we're talking about due-diligence, I recommend red-cup testing this location.  There are definitely plenty of student rentals nearby.  

1280 Elder Ave (link).   This North Boulder home was built in 1996 and features 4 bedrooms and 4 baths on 2,472 SQFT.     The house has great curb appeal and a pretty good layout.   3 of the bedrooms are on the upper level, 1 is in the basement.    The house is tenant occupied and the owner has apparently had enough of being a landlord.    Worth a look but my gut says the asking price at $765,000 is wishful thinking.     Has it really more than doubled in value since 1999?   Mr. Market will decide.     Due diligence tip:   Elder gets some traffic and the location is mixed use.    Stroll around a bit and make sure you can handle the neighborhood.  

It's Alive!
862 15th Street (link).     This rental frankenhouse has been split up and grandfathered to allow 6 unrelated people to occupy it.   The location commands a premium rent because students will happily shell out $700 or more per bedroom to live on University Hill.    What can I tell you, there's gold in those red cups.   At the asking price of $825,000, you're looking at a cap rate of maybe 6%.    My investor-buyers would probably agree that you'd do better to buy two properties in the Baseline neighborhood, but it might still be worth a look    Due diligence tip:   Double check the rental history (estoppel statements) and be conservative on your maintenance estimates.   This house is historic and will very likely have deferred significant deferred maintenance costs.  

Don't forget, as a Realtor I can show you any of these properties.   Call me at 303.746.6896. 

image: mksss and erix!
---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

What's Holding Up Your House? [due diligence]

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by Osman Parvez

You've got to admire the ingenuity of some sellers.

On a recent property inspection, we came across something unusual in the basement.     Take a look.


Now, why would you build a proper support and footing for the floor, when you could simply jam whatever you've got lying around in there?     Why not, indeed.

Nothing says well maintained like discovering an old bed post holding up the floor - a floor, which I might add, was drooping in the corner.    I got the feeling the owner decided this was good enough.   My buyer didn't agree.

The house also exhibited a few other problems, one which was quite rare in Colorado.     If you're curious, this is what termite damage looks like.


I have no idea what the electrical wires are all about.   Maybe instead of calling an exterminator (the right thing to do),  the owner was trying to electrocute the bugs.  

This is why I strongly recommend my buyers obtain a property inspection.   It costs a few hundred bucks but it's absolutely worth it.  

---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Don't Leave Money On The Table [Selling It]

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by Osman Parvez
Want to know a dirty secret?     Sellers in hot markets leave money on the table.  It happens all the time.

I want you to keep this number in mind:  27.7%.      

That's the percentage of 3 bedroom houses in Boulder, priced under $500,000 which sold for full asking or more this past summer.      I wonder how many of those sellers expected a full price offer.    With a median days on market of only 33 - that's from initial listing to closing - these properties FLEW off the market.    In my professional opinion, most of them were under priced.    We're talking about nearly 1/3 of the sales in this price range!

I'd point fingers and name names, but I'd like to keep the mob of angry, pitchfork wielding Boulder Realtors off my front door.   Plus, I will likely be negotiating with them (on your behalf) in the near future.   What can I say, it's a small town.    Let's keep it civil.

How To Leave Money On the Table 101

Here's how it goes down.     The seller contacts their buddy, the agent.    The agent puts together a comparative market analysis (CMA), highlighting recent sales.    Based on this presentation, the listing agent convinces the seller that the house is worth - let's say $375,000.    The seller signs a listing agreement, the agent markets the house, and BOOM - an offer appears for full asking price within a few days.     Of course, the seller signs the contract.     It is, after all the price the house was worth - right?

Wrong.

The seller left tens of thousands of dollars on the table.     See, they didn't really know the houses shown in the comparables.   They don't know that the other houses which sold for $375,000 had cheap finishes, deferred maintenance, and a poor layout.      They don't know that the location was next to an ugly apartment building.   They also didn't know that the market was much weaker a few months ago because sellers rarely know about the price trend.    Heck, a lot Realtors are clueless when it comes to market conditions.   The real value of the house might have been $395,000 or more.

And once you're under contract, guess what?    It's too late.

The big mistake was choosing an agent that valued their commission more than the client relationship and definitely more than their integrity.   It takes a lot of work to deeply analyze the historical sales, understand the trend, and keep tabs on the current competition.    If you're considering buying or selling, choose the best agent for the job, the one willing to do the work that helps you get the most money for your house.

Rule #1.   Price Ahead of the Trend, ALWAYS

Real estate prices are not static.     On the down side of a real estate cycle, prices are sticky but they do slide over time.   On the upside of a cycle, prices increase rapidly.

Guess what part of the cycle we're in right now?   Hint:  It's not the down cycle (for houses under $500,000 in Boulder).    

When the market has very little inventory and demand is strong, you should price ahead of the trend unless you intend to run an auction style listing.   Let me make this clear.  I'm talking about asking for MORE than the most recent comparable sales.     The risk the seller takes is minimal.   If he or she wishes to sell it faster, they can simply drop the price back to the historical comps.    I would recommend doing this within a reasonable period of time, but yes, it remains an option and it shouldn't taint the listing.  

If you remember nothing else, remember this;  an upward moving market is forgiving of price mistakes.   A downward moving market treats overpricing like the kiss of death, it ends with a long listing period and less than you would have gotten otherwise.

Here in Boulder, in certain price ranges and locations, we're in an upward moving market.    Price accordingly.   If you end up with a bidding war, it should be by design never by accident - and you should have a strategy that uses auction energy to drive the price upwards.    Most agents prefer the easy "submit your highest and best" approach.     That's the way to end the auction quickly, but it's not the best way to maximize the price.

Know the Market

An intelligent marketing strategy includes many factors, not just the asking price.    From cosmetic improvements to staging to photography to negotiation tactics, it should all be part of the game plan.    As I've mentioned above, a deliberate strategy of underpricing can result in an intentional bidding war.    As Realtors, we've successfully utilized that strategy to drive the final selling price much higher than anticipated.  It is possible, but it should always be discussed before putting the property on the market.

Strategy should be driven by deep knowledge of market conditions for your specific property type, price range, and location.    The best way to do that is to choose an exceptional agent.  

Remember, as your Realtor it's my job to inform you of what's happening in the market and advise you of your options to maximize the selling price.  It's your job to make the decision on which strategy to pursue.

If you are thinking about selling or buying property and want solid advice, call me.   303.746.6896.    If you're interested in the breakdown of the market, you can see it in the most recent client edition Silver Fern Report (subscribe here).    

---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Mission Control, We Have A Problem [Analyze This]

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by Osman Parvez
     How can you make an intelligent real estate decision if you don't know what's happening in the market?   As a Realtor, how can you provide accurate advice on market conditions if your underlying data is flawed?

I believe the best way to help my buyers and sellers is by providing an accurate and thorough analysis.   Without it, they're making decisions blindly.   Some of that research appears here on this blog, much more detailed research goes into the Silver Fern Report.  

     It's come to my attention that there's a problem with missing data used by Realtors in certain local markets.  This problem affects anyone who relies on IRES or the Boulder Area Realtor Association (BARA) for their data.    In the interests of transparency, better communication, and better service in the Realtor community, it's time to start talking about the problem.

Visualizing The Problem

     The missing data problem is a little difficult to explain.   Let's start by looking at the scale of the problem and the locations impacted (scope).    Here are the charts.


The chart above shows the difference between IRES and Metrolist data sources.  These are the markets covered by the BARA monthly statistics, the data source for many Realtors and for the Silver Fern Report.  By adding up this year's sales volume (through the end of October), the scale and scope of the problem are illustrated.    Some of these markets are missing ridiculously large amounts of data.

As of this writing, IRES doesn't allow users to download Metrolist data.   This results in erroneous information being reported on market conditions by BARA because a significant portion of the data is missing from the sample.    It means that the Silver Fern Report also contains erroneous data in certain markets.

The missing data problem is massive in the certain areas.  Let's remove the worst offenders from the chart and take a closer look.


Removing Suburban Plains, Suburban Mountains, and Broomfield from the chart allows a more intelligent scale.      Clearly, the problem is not insignificant in Erie and Lafayette either.     It's less severe in Boulder, Louisville, Longmont, Superior, and Boulder AD.

Even in the less impacted markets, somewhere between 4% to 10% of the data is missing.    If the small percentage of Metrolist sales data in the data set stays consistent, it's not that bad.    In other words, it still sucks - but it sucks less.

Let's Fix The Problem

In addition to an obsession with good research, I also believe in a process of constant improvement.    As a solution (temporary, I hope), I'm going to remove the most offending markets from future Silver Fern Report.

I've illustrated the problem for you.  I've also already brought it to the attention of the powers that be.  The solution is that  IRES should enable downloading Metrolist data.   If data sharing agreements between the MLS systems do not currently allow it, change the agreements.    Data should be free, especially on such an important sector of our local economy.    Heck, I even make my analysis freely available because I think it's vital that market participants know what's really happening.    That analysis doesn't just happen, I roll up my sleeves and spend hours and hours putting it together.    I still want it out there, widely distributed (sign up here).

It appears that IRES has implemented some options to get around the data sharing problem.  I'll explore these and see if I can rebuild the reports, but for now - Erie, Lafayette, Suburban Plains, Suburban Mountains, and Broomfield will no longer get coverage in the Silver Fern Report until the underlying data source (BARA or IRES) are corrected.     Realtors or other market participants who rely on these data sources should do so cautiously.     Old versions of the Silver Fern Report or other analyses provided by Realtors in these market areas should be viewed with suspicion.     If nothing else, ask your Realtor about the quality of their data source.   You'll notice the source of my data is at the bottom of nearly every single chart I put together.

Now, you know.

NOTE:  The impact of the missing data problem is more to non-clients and anonymous readers of my research because it's a 10,000 foot level problem.    When you're working with me directly as your Realtor, we're in regular communication about market conditions specific to your real estate problem.

---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

29 Kasım 2012 Perşembe

What's Holding Up Your House? [due diligence]

To contact us Click HERE
by Osman Parvez

You've got to admire the ingenuity of some sellers.

On a recent property inspection, we came across something unusual in the basement.     Take a look.


Now, why would you build a proper support and footing for the floor, when you could simply jam whatever you've got lying around in there?     Why not, indeed.

Nothing says well maintained like discovering an old bed post holding up the floor - a floor, which I might add, was drooping in the corner.    I got the feeling the owner decided this was good enough.   My buyer didn't agree.

The house also exhibited a few other problems, one which was quite rare in Colorado.     If you're curious, this is what termite damage looks like.


I have no idea what the electrical wires are all about.   Maybe instead of calling an exterminator (the right thing to do),  the owner was trying to electrocute the bugs.  

This is why I strongly recommend my buyers obtain a property inspection.   It costs a few hundred bucks but it's absolutely worth it.  

---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Don't Leave Money On The Table [Selling It]

To contact us Click HERE
by Osman Parvez
Want to know a dirty secret?     Sellers in hot markets leave money on the table.  It happens all the time.

I want you to keep this number in mind:  27.7%.      

That's the percentage of 3 bedroom houses in Boulder, priced under $500,000 which sold for full asking or more this past summer.      I wonder how many of those sellers expected a full price offer.    With a median days on market of only 33 - that's from initial listing to closing - these properties FLEW off the market.    In my professional opinion, most of them were under priced.    We're talking about nearly 1/3 of the sales in this price range!

I'd point fingers and name names, but I'd like to keep the mob of angry, pitchfork wielding Boulder Realtors off my front door.   Plus, I will likely be negotiating with them (on your behalf) in the near future.   What can I say, it's a small town.    Let's keep it civil.

How To Leave Money On the Table 101

Here's how it goes down.     The seller contacts their buddy, the agent.    The agent puts together a comparative market analysis (CMA), highlighting recent sales.    Based on this presentation, the listing agent convinces the seller that the house is worth - let's say $375,000.    The seller signs a listing agreement, the agent markets the house, and BOOM - an offer appears for full asking price within a few days.     Of course, the seller signs the contract.     It is, after all the price the house was worth - right?

Wrong.

The seller left tens of thousands of dollars on the table.     See, they didn't really know the houses shown in the comparables.   They don't know that the other houses which sold for $375,000 had cheap finishes, deferred maintenance, and a poor layout.      They don't know that the location was next to an ugly apartment building.   They also didn't know that the market was much weaker a few months ago because sellers rarely know about the price trend.    Heck, a lot Realtors are clueless when it comes to market conditions.   The real value of the house might have been $395,000 or more.

And once you're under contract, guess what?    It's too late.

The big mistake was choosing an agent that valued their commission more than the client relationship and definitely more than their integrity.   It takes a lot of work to deeply analyze the historical sales, understand the trend, and keep tabs on the current competition.    If you're considering buying or selling, choose the best agent for the job, the one willing to do the work that helps you get the most money for your house.

Rule #1.   Price Ahead of the Trend, ALWAYS

Real estate prices are not static.     On the down side of a real estate cycle, prices are sticky but they do slide over time.   On the upside of a cycle, prices increase rapidly.

Guess what part of the cycle we're in right now?   Hint:  It's not the down cycle (for houses under $500,000 in Boulder).    

When the market has very little inventory and demand is strong, you should price ahead of the trend unless you intend to run an auction style listing.   Let me make this clear.  I'm talking about asking for MORE than the most recent comparable sales.     The risk the seller takes is minimal.   If he or she wishes to sell it faster, they can simply drop the price back to the historical comps.    I would recommend doing this within a reasonable period of time, but yes, it remains an option and it shouldn't taint the listing.    

If you remember nothing else, remember this;  an upward moving market is forgiving of price mistakes.   A downward moving market treats overpricing like the kiss of death, it ends with a long listing period and less than you would have gotten otherwise.

Here in Boulder, in certain price ranges and locations, we're in an upward moving market.    Price accordingly.   If you end up with a bidding war, it should be by design never by accident - and you should have a strategy that uses auction energy to drive the price upwards.    Most agents prefer the easy "submit your highest and best" approach.     That's the way to end the auction quickly, but it's not the best way to maximize the price.

Know the Market, Always. 

An intelligent marketing strategy includes many factors, not just the asking price.    From cosmetic improvements to staging to photography to negotiation tactics, it should all be part of the game plan.    As I've mentioned above, a deliberate strategy of underpricing can result in an intentional bidding war.    As Realtors, we've successfully utilized that strategy to drive the final selling price much higher than anticipated.  It is possible, but it should always be discussed before putting the property on the market.

Strategy should be driven by deep knowledge of market conditions for your specific property type, price range, and location.    The best way to do that is to choose an exceptional agent.    

Remember, as your Realtor it's my job to inform you of what's happening in the market and advise you of your options to maximize the selling price.  It's your job to make the decision on which strategy to pursue.

If you are thinking about selling or buying property and want solid advise, call me.   303.746.6896.    If you're interested in the breakdown of the market, you can see it in the most recent client edition Silver Fern Report (subscribe here).    

---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

Having trouble getting a mortgage? Here's why

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My good friend Rich Moroscak at Southern Trust Mortgage (http://www.southerntrust.com/tysonscorner/richm) shared this great article from Forbes on all the hoops you have to jump through now to get a mortgage:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybuilder/2012/03/09/the-perfect-loan-file-2/

As the article explains banks are now in the default avoidance business rather than the lending business.  It makes sense considering there were 22% default rates on mortgages loans made in 2007.  Nevertheless, the mortgage loan origination and underwriting process has become absurd.  The article is not exaggerating when it says that you will need to document every aspect of your financial life to the banks and then provide them with that information several times throughout the underwriting process.  Every transaction on your bank statements will be scrutinized and will have to be justified.  Good credit and a large down payment are no longer enough.  The underwriters now want the perfect paper file.

To survive this new regime have plenty of patience and grin and bear it when the underwriters ask for the same documents for the 10th time.  It will be worth it when you finally close on the property.

Thomas Jefferson's 10 Rules for Living

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  • Never put off till tomorrow what you can do to-day.
  • Never trouble another for what you can do yourself.
  • Never spend your money before you have it.
  • Never buy what you do not want, because it is cheap; it will be dear to you.
  • Pride costs us more than hunger, thirst and cold.
  • We never repent of having eaten too little.
  • Nothing is troublesome that we do willingly.
  • How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened.
  • Take things always by their smooth handle.
  • When angry, count ten, before you speak; if very angry, an hundred.
  • We Can't All Be Donald Trump - And That's Okay

    To contact us Click HERE

    When consideringthe many obstacles on the road to success, you might overlook “perfectionism”,but you shouldn’t. This sneaky stumbling block can stop you from even beginningyour journey.Nancy’sColasurdo’s excellent article, “We Can’t All be Shakespeare- And That’s Okay”,takes a look at a ‘defeat mechanism’ that can stop us from even trying toaccomplish our dreams.  And as weall know, if you don’t begin your journey, you certainly won’t get there.As a coachColasurdo has found that clients “often feel that they have to be perfect oraspire to be at the level of someone they feel is at the top of theprofession.” Looking at the end game, some feel that such an achievement isimpossible for them. They forget the many steps that a leader took to achievehis or her goals.  And they alsoforget that each one’s way is individual. How might thisapply to real estate investing? What if a would-be investor chose Donald Trumpas a model, and said, “What’s the point of buying a small rental property, ortwo or even three?  That’s nothingto Donald Trump.”  But just becauseyour journey may be different, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take it. Whenlooking at others’ success stories – remember, their starting point may bedifferent, they have a different path to take, but the important factor toemulate is the mindset that looks for opportunities small and big and makes themost of them one by one.Donald Trumplearned the real estate business first hand from his dad, Frederick, asuccessful developer in Queens and Brooklyn.  When ‘the Donald’ wanted to invest in Manhattan, his dadtried to discourage him. But Trump had a vision of what he could accomplish, hefelt he understood the risks, and was determined to go for it.  His mid-70’s transformation of theCommodore Hotel into The Grand Hyatt, not only made him a fortune and set him ona road to tremendous success, but it also completely revitalized a rundown areaof Manhattan.Few of us beginwith Trump’s assets or a dad like his for a mentor. Instead, we have to learn thebusiness on our own from the ground up. But we do have the ability to adopt theTrump mindset – the approach of a champion.  What does itentail? Doing your homework, understanding the finances, taking well-consideredrisks, planning every step, being prepared for challenges and dealing with them,capitalizing on success, learning from failures.  And to quote Winston Churchill, “Never, never, never, never giveup.”And little bylittle, step-by-step you will build your real estate business, write your ownstory, improve neighborhoods and achieve success your way. And you’ll be gladyou didn’t wait to become perfect before beginning your journey.

    28 Kasım 2012 Çarşamba

    We Can't All Be Donald Trump - And That's Okay

    To contact us Click HERE

    When consideringthe many obstacles on the road to success, you might overlook “perfectionism”,but you shouldn’t. This sneaky stumbling block can stop you from even beginningyour journey.Nancy’sColasurdo’s excellent article, “We Can’t All be Shakespeare- And That’s Okay”,takes a look at a ‘defeat mechanism’ that can stop us from even trying toaccomplish our dreams.  And as weall know, if you don’t begin your journey, you certainly won’t get there.As a coachColasurdo has found that clients “often feel that they have to be perfect oraspire to be at the level of someone they feel is at the top of theprofession.” Looking at the end game, some feel that such an achievement isimpossible for them. They forget the many steps that a leader took to achievehis or her goals.  And they alsoforget that each one’s way is individual. How might thisapply to real estate investing? What if a would-be investor chose Donald Trumpas a model, and said, “What’s the point of buying a small rental property, ortwo or even three?  That’s nothingto Donald Trump.”  But just becauseyour journey may be different, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take it. Whenlooking at others’ success stories – remember, their starting point may bedifferent, they have a different path to take, but the important factor toemulate is the mindset that looks for opportunities small and big and makes themost of them one by one.Donald Trumplearned the real estate business first hand from his dad, Frederick, asuccessful developer in Queens and Brooklyn.  When ‘the Donald’ wanted to invest in Manhattan, his dadtried to discourage him. But Trump had a vision of what he could accomplish, hefelt he understood the risks, and was determined to go for it.  His mid-70’s transformation of theCommodore Hotel into The Grand Hyatt, not only made him a fortune and set him ona road to tremendous success, but it also completely revitalized a rundown areaof Manhattan.Few of us beginwith Trump’s assets or a dad like his for a mentor. Instead, we have to learn thebusiness on our own from the ground up. But we do have the ability to adopt theTrump mindset – the approach of a champion.  What does itentail? Doing your homework, understanding the finances, taking well-consideredrisks, planning every step, being prepared for challenges and dealing with them,capitalizing on success, learning from failures.  And to quote Winston Churchill, “Never, never, never, never giveup.”And little bylittle, step-by-step you will build your real estate business, write your ownstory, improve neighborhoods and achieve success your way. And you’ll be gladyou didn’t wait to become perfect before beginning your journey.

    Market Update -- For the Week of November 26, 2012

    To contact us Click HERE
    QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "The great thing in the world is not so much where we stand, as in what direction we are moving."--Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr., American physician, poet, professor, and author

    INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE
    ... We may not be standing in the middle of a fully recovered housing market, but we're clearly moving in that direction. Existing Home Sales were UP 2.1% in October, staying right near their highest level in over two years. Sales are up 10.9% from a year ago. The median price is now $178,600, up 11.1% over a year ago. And the supply of existing homes dropped from 5.6 to 5.4 months. The inventory of existing homes is down to 2.14 million, the lowest level since December 2002.

    Anyone who still thinks the housing market isn't in recovery had only to look at October Housing Starts, which grew 3.6% to an annual rate of 894,000 units. Multi-family starts were up 11.9% and are up 57.1% versus a year ago. Single-family starts dropped 0.2% for the month, but are up 35.3% over a year ago. Building permits dropped slightly in October, but are up 26.6% for single family and up 36.3% for multi-family units versus last year. Not surprisingly, the NAHB Homebuilders confidence index rose to its highest level in six years. 


    BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... A simple sales pitch can be powerful. Think about the advantages you offer. Then focus on your target market's needs and explain how you meet them.

    Review of Last Week

    DOORBUSTERS HIT WALL STREET... On Black Friday, stocks were selling as hot as doorbusters, which on Wall Street means prices go UP. The Dow and the S&P 500 posted their best weekly gains since June 8, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq busted up an impressive 4%. It was a holiday-shortened week, with just three and a half days of trading. Investors were feeling good on Friday about data out of Germany and China, two recent sources of economic worry, while on the home front, Black Friday retail action raised everyone's holiday spirit. 

    Investors' spirits were also raised by their growing sense that a deficit reduction agreement will be reached to avoid the fiscal cliff of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts slated to kick in January 1. Falling off this cliff could send the economy back into recession according to economists, the Congressional Budget Office, and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who said so Tuesday in front of the Economic Club of New York. Meanwhile, Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose less than expected for November but still hit a five-year high and Leading Economic Indicators edged up slightly for October. 

    For the week, the Dow ended up 3.4%, to 13010; the S&P 500 was up 3.6%, to 1409; and the Nasdaq was up 4.0%, to 2967. 


    Even though economic data was mixed, traders were happy to head into risk assets, which sent stocks up and put bond prices under pressure. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .08, at $106.09. Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey showed national average fixed mortgage rates finding new record lows for the second week in a row. Not surprisingly, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported purchase loan applications UP 3% from the week before. 


    DID YOU KNOW?
    ... Housing Starts, reported last week, are the number of residential building construction projects begun during a specific time period, typically a month.

    >> This Week’s Forecast

    HOME SALES, GDP, INFLATION, MIDWEST MANUFACTURING... The coming week reveals data on October New Home Sales, forecast virtually flat, plus October Pending Home Sales, a measure of signed contracts on existing homes, expected up a bit, good news for those sales a few months out. The second estimate of Q3 GDPeconomic growth is predicted to come in a tad better than first thought, at 2.8%.

    The Fed's favorite inflation measure, 
    Core PCE Prices, which exclude volatile food and energy, should remain moderate. The Chicago PMI is forecast to just cross over 50, indicating expansion for Midwest manufacturing in November.

    >> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

    Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. 

    Economic Calendar for the Week of Nov 26 – Nov 30
     DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpact
    Tu
    Nov 27
    08:30Durable Goods OrdersOct–0.4%9.8%Moderate
    Tu
    Nov 27
    10:00Consumer ConfidenceNov73.072.2Moderate
    W
    Nov 28
    10:00New Home SalesOct388K389KModerate
    W
    Nov 28
    10:30Crude Inventories11/24NA–1.466MModerate
    W
    Nov 28
    14:00Fed's Beige BookOctNANAModerate
    Th
    Nov 29
    08:30Initial Unemployment Claims11/24395K410KModerate
    Th
    Nov 29
    08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims11/173.325M3.337MModerate
    Th
    Nov 29
    08:30GDP–2nd EstimateQ32.8%2.0%Moderate
    Th
    Nov 29
    08:30GDP Deflator–2nd EstimateQ32.8%2.8%Moderate
    Th
    Nov 29
    10:00Pending Home SalesOct1.0%0.3%Moderate
    F
    Nov 30
    08:30Personal IncomeOct0.2%0.4%Moderate
    F
    Nov 30
    08:30Personal SpendingOct0.1%0.8%HIGH
    F
    Nov 30
    08:30PCE Prices–CoreOct0.2%0.1%HIGH
    F
    Nov 30
    09:45Chicago PMINov50.749.9HIGH

    >> Federal Reserve Watch   

    Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... With Fed Chairman Bernanke worrying about the fiscal cliff, no one sees the FOMC budging from their commitment to keep rates super low for quite some time. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
    After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
    Dec 120%–0.25%
    Jan 300%–0.25%
    Mar 200%–0.25%

    Probability of change from current policy:
    After FOMC meeting on:Consensus
    Dec 12     <1 p="p">
    Jan 30     <1 p="p">
    Mar 20     <1 p="p">
    UIE 


    Thi

    Equal Housing Lender   

    First Impression - Don't Sue Me

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    Last week, I took my buyers to see houses in Superior.   The sign below was attached to the front door of one of the houses.

    And Don't Run with Scissors

    First impressions matter.   Greeting potential buyers with your fear of being sued is not exactly rolling out the welcome mat.  

    Walking in the door of this house, I expected to see shards of broken glass on the floors, fire damage, stairs hung askew, or curtains of mold hanging from the walls.      Yet none of these things were present.    It was a just a typical house with a favorable layout, low end finishes but a good location.    There was nothing scary inside.

    Is it possible that a potential buyer will get injured in your home and sue you for damages?   Of course it's possible, this is America after all.    Sellers should not be negligent, take some time and make their house safe for visitors.   In other words, correct the trip hazards and if necessary (rare), put up signs to help people avoid injury from obvious hazards.   As for THIS sign?  I'll leave it to the legal scholars in the audience to tell us whether it offers any real protection from liability.    I have my doubts.   

    And if the sign offers no real protection, why put it up?   It only affects the buyers negatively.    

    p.s. This is the only house I've seen - EVER - that had a injury disclaimer taped to the front door.    

    ---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

    It's Bargain Time

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    by Osman Parvez

    It's bargain time, people.    

    The biggest discounts in Boulder real estate usually happen from Thanksgiving to New Years.    Sellers are getting anxious and would just like to be done with the process.   Buyers typically have more selection and more negotiation leverage.  Everyone is distracted by the holidays.

    Perhaps, this year will be different.  The market has remained very active in the fourth quarter and with record low inventory, bargains are a little less abundant.    Still, let's take a look at some (mostly) fresh listings.    Believe me, these sellers are very motivated to list at this time of year.  

    Fresh Listings, Get 'Em Hot

    4965 Qualla Drive (link).   This bi-level was built in the 1960's with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a 1 car garage.    The asking price is reasonable at $429,000 but the proximity to Foothills may be an issue.    My usual rule of thumb is to be at least 3 houses from a busy street.   This one is 2 houses from Thunderbird and Foothills.    For bargain shoppers who aren't bothered by the potential traffic noise, it's worth considering.   For those worried about resale, you might want to take a pass.    Due Diligence Tip: Test your noise tolerance by standing in the backyard during rush hour.  

    1959 Beacon Ct (link).    These super cute town homes are rarely available and in the perfect location for a stroll to Pearl Street.     A little small - only 1,012 SQFT and two bedrooms - they are perhaps best suited to young professionals, downsizing Boomers, or vacation home buyers.      This one is done up nicely.   The asking price is $499,900.   Due Diligence Tip:  The HOA fees are only $200 per year, but check for upcoming capital assessments and review the restrictions to ensure it fits your lifestyle.

    Eye candy!
    907 13th Street (link).    I love Craftsman style homes and this one is eye candy.   It was recently constructed with a good layout, ample bedrooms and baths, and plenty of space (5,200 finished SQFT) for a family.   Very rare for Boulder, it also has a 3 car heated garage.    It's less than 10 years old, so the house is nearly turn-key which is also rare in the Boulder real estate market.    The location is pretty good, but not spectacular.   Due Diligence Tip:  The seller is signaling deep motivation.  It's not actually new on the market.    The latest refreshed listing may give the appearance of being new to market (eye roll), but the truth is this house was originally listed in June at $1,550,000.  Since then, the asking price has been reduced $162,500 to $1,387,500.     And while we're talking about due-diligence, I recommend red-cup testing this location.  There are definitely plenty of student rentals nearby.  

    1280 Elder Ave (link).   This North Boulder home was built in 1996 and features 4 bedrooms and 4 baths on 2,472 SQFT.     The house has great curb appeal and a pretty good layout.   3 of the bedrooms are on the upper level, 1 is in the basement.    The house is tenant occupied and the owner has apparently had enough of being a landlord.    Worth a look but my gut says the asking price at $765,000 is wishful thinking.     Has it really more than doubled in value since 1999?   Mr. Market will decide.     Due diligence tip:   Elder gets some traffic and the location is mixed use.    Stroll around a bit and make sure you can handle the neighborhood.  

    It's Alive!
    862 15th Street (link).     This rental frankenhouse has been split up and grandfathered to allow 6 unrelated people to occupy it.   The location commands a premium rent because students will happily shell out $700 or more per bedroom to live on University Hill.    What can I tell you, there's gold in those red cups.   At the asking price of $825,000, you're looking at a cap rate of maybe 6%.    My investor-buyers would probably agree that you'd do better to buy two properties in the Baseline neighborhood, but it might still be worth a look    Due diligence tip:   Double check the rental history (estoppel statements) and be conservative on your maintenance estimates.   This house is historic and will very likely have deferred significant deferred maintenance costs.  

    Don't forget, as a Realtor I can show you any of these properties.   Call me at 303.746.6896. 

    image: mksss and erix!
    ---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

    What's Holding Up Your House? [due diligence]

    To contact us Click HERE
    by Osman Parvez

    You've got to admire the ingenuity of some sellers.

    On a recent property inspection, we came across something unusual in the basement.     Take a look.


    Now, why would you build a proper support and footing for the floor, when you could simply jam whatever you've got lying around in there?     Why not, indeed.

    Nothing says well maintained like discovering an old bed post holding up the floor - a floor, which I might add, was drooping in the corner.    I got the feeling the owner decided this was good enough.   My buyer didn't agree.

    The house also exhibited a few other problems, one which was quite rare in Colorado.     If you're curious, this is what termite damage looks like.


    I have no idea what the electrical wires are all about.   Maybe instead of calling an exterminator (the right thing to do),  the owner was trying to electrocute the bugs.  

    This is why I strongly recommend my buyers obtain a property inspection.   It costs a few hundred bucks but it's absolutely worth it.  

    ---Note: Our goal is to provide exceptional service to our clients. The ideas and strategies in this blog post are the opinion of the writer at the time of publication. Silver Fern Homes recommends careful and complete due diligence before buying or selling real estate or other investments. Consult with your professional advisers before making financial decisions. This article is not intended as legal, tax, or investment advice. Silver Fern Homes will not be held liable for investment choices derived from this article.

    27 Kasım 2012 Salı

    Thomas Jefferson's 10 Rules for Living

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  • Never put off till tomorrow what you can do to-day.
  • Never trouble another for what you can do yourself.
  • Never spend your money before you have it.
  • Never buy what you do not want, because it is cheap; it will be dear to you.
  • Pride costs us more than hunger, thirst and cold.
  • We never repent of having eaten too little.
  • Nothing is troublesome that we do willingly.
  • How much pain have cost us the evils which have never happened.
  • Take things always by their smooth handle.
  • When angry, count ten, before you speak; if very angry, an hundred.